In today’s Macroeconomic Economic Briefing Vincent Deluard from INTL FC Stone delves into US Treasury market supply and demand dynamics and asks if the Federal Reserve and foreign central banks aren’t the default buyers of US Treasuries anymore, then who will replace them? Clearly domestic buyers will step into the breach, but who are they, and which part of the curve will they buy? Deluard reckons demand is in the short end, so get ready for steeper curves. Of course the lack if foreign buying is part of an even larger global theme; De-dollarization. This has been covered prolifically by Luke Gromen at Forest for the Trees. We highlight an interesting recent note from FFTT that explores one strand of this theme and the impact this is having on the correlation between gold and CNY. We also take a look at China credit, where the latest data has boosted confidence that the credit cycle maybe turning. Not so fast, say J Capital Research, who argue that China’s bank’s won’t be able to extend enough credit to the economy and that deep conflicts in the way they are supposed to operate, mean that central authorities will have to choose between serious stimulus or a recession. Also today, we highlight an excellent deep dive by Empirical Research on the US leveraged loan market, a subject that should be on all investors radars, while ECR’s political analysts run the ruler on Europe’s suffocating political risks.