In today’s Macroeconomic Briefing we highlight research looking at where we are in the economic and credit cycle. Since the Fed pause and tentative signs of a China recovery, there’s some expectation of a second half rebound. Phil Suttle from Suttle Economics is a seasoned market economist and he concurs with that view. He reckons Q4 2018 will probably mark the low for growth during in this latest downswing. However business cycle specialists, ECRI, say their leading indicators are still pointing lower, while Ineichen Research, which uses momentum indicators to measure risk changes, shows that while there are signs of a recovery in the global economy, the US economy continues to raise more red flags. Top Down Research, provide some useful analysis on the PMIs and CMIs, where their PMI indicators point to some green shoots, but where the CMI (Credit Managers Index) shows what they call a ”benign malaise.” They’re also mindful of the turning down of their economic cycle indicators, which have yet to catch a reaction from credit spreads, but it is something investors should keep a close eye on. Lastly, Absolute Strategy Research are much more bearish saying that the maturity of the US business and credit cycles, together with a skewed distribution of debt within the corporate sector, does not augur well for corporate bond returns, in the event that fiscal policy fails to re-energise the economy, or central banks take away the liquidity punch bowl.