What the PMIs told us last week, and other indicators

The bad news is that the global economy is still slowing. The good news is that similar soft patches in the past were followed by faster growth, writes Yardeni Research. The firm provides a thorough breakdown of the recent global PMIs, which they say indicates neither boom, nor bust. In terms of other indicators, their favourite indicator of global economic activity is the CRB raw industrials spot price index, which after rebounding earlier this year, has begun to meander again in recent weeks, which seems to confirm the slow-go mode of global PMIs. To track global growth, Yardeni monitors weekly forward revenues of the US, Developed World ex-US, and Emerging Markets MSCI stock composites. Here, they see no sign of recession in these composites. Finally, to track domestic economic activity, Yardeni tracks a whole host of US transportation indicators. These seem to be slowing, or stalling at record highs. Something to watch.