US Equities; Home, home with the range

Several banks have started to revise up their end of year equity expectations, with some suggesting the consumer is cash rich, says Keith Grindlay at Macro Thoughts. He, however, maintains his expectation for the range 3200 to 3000 to hold in the S&P 500 for a while, but warns the risks to the downside have not gone away. Grindlay maintains that it is the demand side that drives the economy, not the supply side, and that the US consumer remains under pressure. Equity markets have continued to rally, he says, in the expectation that the Fed will always be there to support the market, but expectations for an economic recovery are optimistic and risk disappointment, which will have significant consequences for equities. This is an issue the Federal Reserve under Powell has created for itself, and a potential bubble that may yet turn into high market volatility, adds Grindlay. Indeed, he says with an election due and having put so much into the economy, any volatility that creates another sell off in equities will become a problem for Powell: can he be seen to be supporting equities again if polls show Trump could lose the election and continue to look impartial?