Three Questions Ahead of China’s Economic Work Conference

China’s 19th Party Congress in October laid out long-term objectives and policy directions for the country, but interpretations of its near term policy implication vary, writes UBS’s China economist, Tao Wang in this report. That’s why he thinks that the upcoming annual Economic Work Conference (EWC) should help shed some light, including on three questions high on investors’ list: 1) Will China significantly lower its annual growth target or abandoning it altogether? 2) Will the PBC raise interest rates in light of rising inflation? And 3) Will deleveraging lead to significant credit market volatility and serious credit event? Their key conclusions are that they expect a slightly lower growth target, the PBoC may raise interest rates in 2018 if inflation and US rates rise more than envisaged, that deleveraging will likely continue to tighten liquidity conditions, but that a serious market calamity is unlikely. UBS clients can view the full note on UBS Neo.