Brazil’s pension reform hits road blocks, curtailing growth prospects

Eurasia Group have been tracking Brazil’s pension reform process closely in recent weeks, and it’s not going well, they say. According to pollster Datafolha, 51% of the public opposes President Jair Bolsonaro’s pension reform proposal, while 41% supports it. Eurasia say public support is vital for the legislation, and because Bolsonaro is not promising executive appointments and government spending in exchange for votes, thus lawmakers will be even more sensitive to public opinion trends, Eurasia argue. Though a public split on the merits of Bolsonaro’s proposal is still broadly favourable for its prospects, the odds of failure (currently at 30% according to Eurasia) would increase if the public turns more negative. In recent weeks, Eurasia have pointed to a growing skepticism among lawmakers that this will be approved on April 17 as planned, and if these pension reform talks extend throughout the whole year then there is bigger risk of public opinion turning more negative against the president or the pensions overhaul. These reforms are critically important for Brazil’s economy, and the future growth path. See this piece here, by Bloomberg that sets out why they matter.