In today’s Macro Briefing Deep Macro leverages its big data and machine learning techniques to shed light on the US jobs market which suggests better US jobs data is on its way as the economy continues to reopen, with retail visits and job postings increasing week-on-week. This seems to square with the latest jobs claims data released today. SouthBay Research, who also feature in today’s briefing looking at the onshoring of tech supply chains, tell us today’s claims provide the first positive bit of news for some time as ongoing claims dropped. They say when you strip out both the claims under the PUA program (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance), which allows contractors and self-employed workers to apply for unemployment benefits, and the usual seasonal 200K initial claims, then we are seeing only 500K in unusual claims, which a lot better than 6 million just a few weeks ago. We also highlight research on inflation, from the Capital Markets Outlook Group, who make the case that Fed ”money printing” and the mechanics of how the bank reserves they create are used in collateral management by banks, suppresses liquidity to the wider economy. This means that until economic and financial conditions improve enough to turn the banking system towards more risk-seeking and balance sheet expanding activities, inflation is unlikely to emerge. Turning to Europe, Pantheon Macro reviews yesterday’s announcement of the details of the European Recovery Fund. While it is a positive step from a macroeconomic perspective, Pantheon say it is unlikely to quell the political battle that is about to begin within the region. Finally, we highlight the who are the top developed markets forecasters are, as awarded by Consensus Economics an independent economic survey firm. It’s an interesting mix on sell side, buy side and independent firms.