In today’s Daily Macroeconomic Briefing we highlight a range of pieces looking at investor sentiment and positioning, highlighting a range a proprietary indicators and investor surveys. This should provide some insight into how investors maybe/should be positioning their portfolios as 2019 gets underway. Sentix’s latest investor survey highlights a marked improvement in equity investment sentiment, with a bias for European equities over US, while their overconfidence Index, which measures the probability for the case that a series of rising or falling prices has led to an augmented complacency among investors, finds overconfidence among the bears in Japanese equities and oil, and the bulls on US and European bonds. Absolute Strategy Research measure sentiment using their proprietary Sentiment Barometer Indicators (SBIs), which use behavioural biases to create series that have the same dynamics as survey-based indices. These indicators point to investor sentiment – predicated on December’s moves – is now stretched across a range of asset classes, suggesting a bounce. Deutsche Bank says equity price action and repo moves suggest significant cuts in futures positioning, but low liquidity likely amplified market impact, while Goldman Sachs shows that their risk appetite indicator (RAI) currently shows that risky asset return asymmetry is likely improving, but only over longer horizons as current levels still suggest near-term caution may be needed. Finally, we highlight a piece from DeepMacro, who’s machine learning techniques detect a regime transition from an ”expansion” regime to a ”vulnerable” regime. This suggests that the model is picking up on rising risks and the ageing business cycle, which are reducing the upside potential for risky asset returns. Still, decent growth levels, low cost pressures, and a benign policy environment leads them to maintain some equity exposure.