In today’s Macroeconomic Briefing we highlight research looking at sell side consensus views for 2019, where TS Lombard suggest that due to a uniformity, or conformity in opinion and forecasts, there is potential for some big surprises, and thus opportunities for investors. This revolves around 3 key themes in their research, the Fed pause, US-China trade tensions/truce, and whether China will stabilise its economy in 2019. On the latter, China specialists Enodo Economics say they are more concerned than they have ever been about whether China’s policymakers can keep the economy on the rails. Growth is set to ratchet lower again this year and even more stimulus will be required in 2019. The rates theme is covered by INTL FC Stone, who are very much in the secular bear market camp here, but have been caught offside by the recent rally in nominal yields. In the note below, they seek to rationalise this rally in yields, but they remain bearish, arguing greater structural forces will mean long-yields will move higher. We also highlight a bearish note on Canada, following this week’s pause from the Bank of Canada. Greg Weldon makes a fairly compelling case that the economy is on the verge of tipping over, and the US economy is not far behind. Finally, Ned Davis Research look at why the outlook for oil prices looks positive given Saudi Arabia’s need for higher oil prices to meet some aggressive revenue targets, and they expand fiscal policy.