In today’s Macroeconomic Briefing we feature research looking at the key asset classes as they hover around important inflection points. Firstly with the US dollar, Cross Border Capital says markets are about to enter an important risk-on phase. They point to a variety of factors for this, but where their greatest conviction lay, is their analysis of net cross-border capital inflows into the US, which peaked in August 2019, and continue to fall. This suggests demand for US-denominated safe assets is falling, thus eliminating support for the dollar. On equities the Cam Hui from the Pennock Idea Hub says that the monthly charts of selected indices have flashed MACD buy signals, which have historically pointed to prices gains of 25% or more. Hui doubts this is achievable, and his more balanced analytical approach, using a variety of technical and fundamental techniques, and has arrived at some different answers, perhaps gains of 10-15%. Meanwhile on US Treasuries, Cornerstone Macro’s technical analysis of 10-year Treasuries indicates that the bond will now trade sideways till year-end, after the recent pullback. Lastly, we turn to credit, where MI2 Partners highlight the high-yield and wider macro risks that stem from the weak outlook for the US shale outlook, while BAML discuss the the self perpetuating cycle of rising corporate debt levels and share buy backs, as they look for the weak links that may break this cycle. They argue that whole cycle is predicated on high single figure – low double digit EPS consensus estimates. If the run rate is sustains, then the cycle can keep going, but BAML question whether actual EPS can even get close to that. Should disappointment result, the cycle is in grave risk.