In today’s Macroeconomic Briefing Absolute Strategy Research highlight the latest readings on their market sentiment barometers which show that the stars are not quite aligned for a contrarian bounce in risk assets. While bonds are over bought, equites are not yet oversold. On the Fed, Rareview Macro, who were calling for rate cuts as early as January, say that the market is underpricing the chance of a 50 basis point cut, while Top Down Charts takes a look at the latest data on shadow rates, and conclude that an obvious policy pivot is under way, even if that’s not immediately clear on a headline basis. On trade, Gavekal look at the latest trade actions launched by the US against Mexico and India and what it means for investors in the emerging markets. Finally, Forest for the Trees says that China has two big cards to defend the Yuan in the form of oil and gold contracts, and they will use such tools if the red line of RMB 7.0 comes under threat.