In today’s Macroeconomic briefing we highlight research that looks to question the more sanguine outlook from markets this past week, where Oxford Economics have modelled global GDP over the next two years and find that there is a major risk of a China ”hard landing,” which could see growth could contract significantly to a decade low. Meanwhile, Ned Davis Research argues the cyclical downtrend remains intact and may soon reassert itself. Turning to positioning, Vanda Research show that investors still remain underweight equities, which is the main pain trade currently. Investors may concur with Oxford and NDR, but how patient can they be? Vanda also say EM equities are set the shine following a dovish Fed last week, and long positions are only starting to be rebuilt. We also shine a light on Modern Monetary Theory which is getting more and more attention, particularly among US politicians, and Russell Napier argues that buying cheap UK assets might not be a bad idea. He also reckons that Ireland maybe a bigger risk than people are currently assessing as the country becomes entangled in Brexit.