In today’s Macroeconomic Briefing we have selected a range of research notes that touch on some of the dominant themes of the week, including central bank policy, trade and also the potential revision of earnings growth. Pantheon Macro say the Fed is in a double bind, caught between the twin threats of depressed growth and raising inflation, while the ECB, say Gavekal, seems to be restocking its armory while hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. On trade, Capital Economics focus the risks to the auto sector from tariffs being imposed on Mexico, while Nomura have looked at 12-months of trade data to show trade substitution trends away from US-China trade are playing out. Finally, we highlight a useful economic indicator tracked by the team at Cornerstone Macro; lumber prices. Lumber prices, seen as an ISM proxy and a favoured leading indicator at Cornerstone, are at a cyclical low and they reckon current EPS estimates are out of line with this.