Emmanuel Macron went into the French Presidential TV debate as perceived champion-in-waiting, which made him a target. But his opponents didn’t seem to land a punch on him and he remains firm favourite with the bookmakers, writes Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes this morning. This in turn leaves the Euro slightly stronger again this morning, and the 10-year real yield differential between Germany and the US has narrowed to 142bp, a level it hasn’t seen since mid-December. However, as Eurasia Group argue in a piece we feature in today’s briefing, Le Pen is standing against a mixed bunch, which is on the one hand is under a corruption cloud, and two, is very untested (Macron). Tread with caution, they seem to be arguing. The focus of their latest analysis is on the risk of systemic instability to French banks in the event of a Le Pen victory, and its role as a catalyst to Frexit. We also turn our attention to the new Dutch political landscape – post election, and look at the growing number of global inflationary forces coming into play.