1) Geopolitics
2) Oil and Gas
3) US Equities
4) Fed Policy
5) Private Debt

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US/China Geo-Strategic Competition

An interesting thesis on the US-Iran war strategy emerged from Mark Latham this week in The Hegemon Awakens. Based on the idea of the Monroe Doctrine with 2020s’ characteristics. Within this doctrine framework, Lathan discussed the theory of ‘’encirclement’’ aimed at restraining China via an energy supply shock, critical metals price floors and AI dominance. This is not really about Iran, or the Middle East, so the thesis goes. All very plausible.

But, there’s an alternative narrative, the opposite narrative in fact, which Chris Wood explores in the latest Greed & Fear, Chinamaxxing. Wood argues that China is emerging as a dominant player in the AI arms race, surpassing US models in terms of token usage on the OpenRouter platform, partly due to its access to cheap electricity and computing power.

While much has been made of China’s dependence of fossil fuels, China’s use of oil and gas for primary energy consumption, stands at 27.2% versus the global average of 54.6% as of 2024, which insulates China from the disruptions caused by the Iran conflict, Wood argues.

Also see a more detailed piece from Rhodium Group, Minerals, Metals, and Megawatts: How China’s Power Generation Drives Its Industrial Metals Ecosystem, which explores the China’s competitive advantage across key industries related to electrification and critical metals and their global supply chains. According Rhodium, China has emerged as the dominant force in global electrification, controlling the production of nearly all components necessary for the transition to renewable energy. Rhodium argues that overcoming China’s industrial ecosystem poses significant risks and challenges for countries seeking to reduce their dependence on Chinese inputs, requiring sustained policy commitment, predictable demand, and a willingness to accept higher costs to rebuild parallel supply chains outside of China.

The Dollar, Triffin Dilemma & FDI Splurge

Somewhat related to the great US/China competition for dominance is the surge of FDI into the US, which is highlighted by Eurizon’s Stephen Jen in USD10 Trillion in Pledged FDI and the Triffin Dilemma, where he assesses how a staggering $10 trillion in new foreign direct investment (FDI) pledges from foreign countries  quadrupling annual US FDI inflows – will impact the US Dollar. For other USD related pieces see TS Lombard’s Why the Dollar isn’t Strengthening More, and Rosenberg Research’s Understanding the Flight to the U.S. Dollar. 

A Reassessment of Cybersecurity

An outbreak of war can sharpen the mind on cybersecurity. The sector had been lumped in with the rest of the software sector in the recent ‘’AI disruption’’ sell off. So, a reassessment is taking place among analysts.

Guggenheim writes in Security 2026: A Look Back and A Look Forward that while the security industry is expected to broadly benefit from AI, as it may lead to new ways of distributing malware, it remains unclear which specific areas of security are best suited to secure AI. Enterprises are expected to increase their cybersecurity spending by around 6.0% in 2026, up from 5.5% in 2025, according to their client survey

CFRA write in Cybersecurity Playbook Amid War, AI Disruption, and Securing the Enterprise in the AI Age that AI also serves as a significant growth catalyst as enterprises increasingly adopt AI-powered solutions, fueling the need for enhanced security offerings. Investors should prioritize broad, end-to-end cybersecurity vendors with large customer bases, as these firms possess the necessary defenses against AI disruption, competition, and near-term headwinds.

As for whether cyber stocks are a buy, Rosenberg Research, in Caught in the AI Scare Trade: Cybersecurity’s Case for a Rerating see the recent sell-off as an opportunity to take advantage of valuations that are lower than fundamentals warrant.

WHAT’S COMING UP FROM OUR PROVIDERS 

This webinar will provide a deeper dive into the shifting global regimes expected to evolve over the next 5–10 years. In addition to examining the global economic outlook and the impact of the US–Iran war, the session will explore multi year trends that will shape the global economic, geopolitical, and sectoral landscape.

Topics covered will include:

  • Global Economic Outlook including downside risks to growth, and upside risks to inflation
  • Outlook for the US-Iran war
  • Ramifications for oil markets, inflation & monetary policy
  • Which economies are most exposed from rising oil prices, and which are more constrained from a sectoral perspective.
  • Outlook for the USD & major currencies.
  • Deep dive into various regime changes, which are accelerating.

Date:  8th April

Time: 3 pm GMT, 10 am ET

RSVP here.