ZAR: Fade the Rally

Consider fading the rand rally, writes Rand Merchant Bank strategist John Cairns, in a note to clients this morning. Cairns says that most sharp market moves generally overshoot and while it could be argued that the pullback from 12.54 to the 12.70s already constitutes this adjustment, he says this is barely 10% of the R2.00 move seen since November. Furthermore, the market moves in the run up to the result may turn cautious, says Cairns, and that’s because a detailed look through press and expert political commentary shows that there are some reservations being expressed about the election results. For instance consider the Business Day headline “Ramaphosa wins a poisoned chalice” (or is some versions “Ramaphosa heads a house divided”). Or the subline from the Star “Bittersweet victory as Ramaphosa leads ANC”. The most widespread expressed concern by political analysts is that three of the Top Six are not considered natural allies of the new ANC president and that unless there is a realignment, then the new president will be constrained in carrying out his agenda. In all, the market is right to have rallied in anticipation of the result, but the election is only partly, not completely, positive. Click below if you would like access to this report or the latest podcast hosted by RMB that hosts some leading political analysts in South Africa.