Brexit Risk for UK Fin Services Overstated

Ewen Stewart at Walbrook Economics is an expert on BREXIT analysis and has a much more sanguine than the consensus so his work is worth taking notice of. In this report, published this week, he makes a strong case that even if there is no Single Market access nor passporting for the UK financial services sector, there will be little overall impact on the overall sector, apart from a few pockets of activity. He presents four possible choices the UK faces, but concludes that in the end a deal will be reached, that will effectively enshrine the status quo. It will be made politically acceptable by time dating it post the transition period. The report goes on to say that the UK’s share of the European financial services market is huge and cannot be replicated in any other financial centre. So even if there is no deal and the UK has to trade with Europe under the WTO, it will still dominate. He concurs with the figure of up to 10,000 job losses being likely and points out that this is only 3% of the total employment in high-end UK financial services. Click below to request trial access to read this full report.