If there’s one indicator to watch at the moment, it’s the trend in breakeven inflation rates, say analysts and strategists. US 10-year breakevens are drifting gently lower, below 2% now. Indeed we see more and more comments from market participants and central banks that provide a sense of uncertainty about the prospect of core inflation going back to, or above target for a sustained period of time. We touched on this in yesterday’s briefing with MI2 Partners, and Raoul Pal from RealVision TV put out an interesting video (paywall) on Friday that argues that a major move down in yields is imminent. We feature research from Macro Insight Group today on the inflation outlook, while also flagging up some interesting work from Southbay Research which assesses activity within the global supply chain, and whether it is merely pausing (after Q2 16 expansion) or turning down, which isn’t a good sign for global growth.