There’s a sense of pre-election nervousness as we enter the final days of first-round voting of the French elections, but it’s not disorderly by any stretch of the imagination, say analysts. The state of the euro best reflects this, where it can’t get a significant bid, but isn’t sliding either. The latest polls confirm the first round will be close with a 5% range encompassing support for the four main candidates. Yesterday’s Opinionway/Orpi poll for Les Echos puts Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron 22%, Francois Fillon on 21% and Jean Luc Melenchon on 18. The implied odds from Oddschecker.com show M Fillon recovering to edge ahead of Mme Le Pen, and M Macron drifting, but still far ahead. But if M Melenchon’s charge has the most momentum, and has been replaced to some small degree by a Fillon bounce, the biggest threat to the Euro (a Le Pen/Melenchon second run-off) is becoming slightly less likely, say SG. We also highlight research that examines the implications of the reduction in the size of the Fed balance sheet. It was a popular theme among analysts last week.